Automatic Enrolment: Employer staging forecast

25 April 2014

Updated forecast shows that 30,000 medium sized employers reach their 'staging dates' between this April and the end of the year.

The Pensions Regulator has published an updated forecast report of the number of employers due to become subject to automatic enrolment duties over the next four years

This forecast sets out our expectations of when medium, small and micro employers are likely to become subject to the new automatic enrolment duties (their staging date).

It is being provided here to assist pension providers, advisers and other intermediaries with capacity planning, but it should only be used as a broad indicator.

This forecast is based on PAYE information as at 1 April 2012. This forecast is an estimate of the number of employers’ PAYE schemes expected to become subject to the automatic enrolment duties. It is based on a number of assumptions. The numbers of employers actually falling within the duties will vary because of the following factors:

  • Some employers share PAYE schemes, and conversely other employers may use several PAYE schemes
  • Employers have the ability to bring their staging date forward and this forecast has not factored in these movements
  • PAYE schemes which currently have one director and no employees are not included in this forecast; however, if they recruit an employee in the future they may then become subject to the automatic enrolment duties. Conversely employers who had employees on 1 April 2012 may no longer have employees at their staging date and will not be subject to the duties
  • The table includes estimates of existing PAYE schemes used by employers that will go out of business in the future, and new PAYE schemes for employers which will come into existence
  • The number of PAYE schemes is not adjusted by those employers who use a PAYE scheme with 50 or more persons but have less than 50 workers (and subsequently elect to defer their staging date as allowed by the legislation)
  • This forecast does not include re-enrolment (employers are required to complete registration with The Pensions Regulator every three years).

Read the full forecast report